Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models.
Identifieur interne : 000604 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000603; suivant : 000605Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models.
Auteurs : Ulrich Nguemdjo [France] ; Freeman Meno [France] ; Audric Dongfack [France] ; Bruno Ventelou [France]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Algorithmes (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Cameroun (épidémiologie), Fonctions de vraisemblance (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles statistiques (MeSH), Pandémies (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Simulation numérique (MeSH), Taux de reproduction de base (MeSH), Évolution de la maladie (MeSH).
- MESH :
- prévention et contrôle : Infections à coronavirus, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale.
- épidémiologie : Cameroun, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Algorithmes, Betacoronavirus, Fonctions de vraisemblance, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Simulation numérique, Taux de reproduction de base, Évolution de la maladie.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Cameroun.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Algorithms (MeSH), Basic Reproduction Number (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Cameroon (epidemiology), Computer Simulation (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Disease Progression (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Likelihood Functions (MeSH), Models, Statistical (MeSH), Pandemics (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Cameroon.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Algorithms, Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, Computer Simulation, Disease Progression, Humans, Likelihood Functions, Models, Statistical.
Abstract
This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237832
PubMed: 32841283
PubMed Central: PMC7447022
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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maladie</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Cameroun</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32841283</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>04</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>04</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>15</Volume><Issue>8</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0237832</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0237832</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nguemdjo</LastName><ForeName>Ulrich</ForeName><Initials>U</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-0151-5941</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>AMSE, Centrale Marseille, EHESS, CNRS, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Meno</LastName><ForeName>Freeman</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Lycée Polyvalent Franklin Roosevelt, Reims, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dongfack</LastName><ForeName>Audric</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ecole Centrale Marseille, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ventelou</LastName><ForeName>Bruno</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>AMSE, Centrale Marseille, EHESS, CNRS, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>25</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000465" MajorTopicYN="N">Algorithms</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D050936" MajorTopicYN="Y">Basic Reproduction Number</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002163" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Cameroon</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018450" MajorTopicYN="Y">Disease Progression</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016013" MajorTopicYN="N">Likelihood Functions</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><CoiStatement>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate 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IdType="pubmed">15893110</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Infect Dis Model. 2017 Jun 29;2(3):288-303</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29928743</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li></country><region><li>Champagne-Ardenne</li><li>Grand Est</li><li>Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur</li></region><settlement><li>Marseille</li><li>Reims</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur"><name sortKey="Nguemdjo, Ulrich" sort="Nguemdjo, Ulrich" uniqKey="Nguemdjo U" first="Ulrich" last="Nguemdjo">Ulrich Nguemdjo</name></region><name sortKey="Dongfack, Audric" sort="Dongfack, Audric" uniqKey="Dongfack A" first="Audric" last="Dongfack">Audric Dongfack</name><name sortKey="Meno, Freeman" sort="Meno, Freeman" uniqKey="Meno F" first="Freeman" last="Meno">Freeman Meno</name><name sortKey="Nguemdjo, Ulrich" sort="Nguemdjo, Ulrich" uniqKey="Nguemdjo U" first="Ulrich" last="Nguemdjo">Ulrich Nguemdjo</name><name sortKey="Ventelou, Bruno" sort="Ventelou, Bruno" uniqKey="Ventelou B" first="Bruno" last="Ventelou">Bruno Ventelou</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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